Rock Phosphate
Use
Phosphorus is an essential nutrient for all living organisms and is considered the second most important nutrient for plant growth.
It plays a crucial role as a fertilizer and is now becoming a key component of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries. As global demand for rock phosphate as a source of phosphorus continues to grow, large, high-quality sedimentary deposits in North America are becoming increasingly scarce. Despite recent igneous discoveries, most are proving uneconomical for production due to low P2O5 grade (<10% P₂O₅), high crystallinity making the ore less soluble for processing and significant capital investment requirements more than US $2 billion. Hence, approximately 85%¹ of all mined rock phosphate comes from sedimentary deposits today.
Phosphate Fertilizer Market
USD $61² billion
With 5.7% CAGR
2021 -> 2040
LFP Demand Growing From
USD $15B -> $124B³
2023 -> 2032
Stiener, G. (2015). Efficiency developments in phosphate rock mining over the last three decades. Resources, Conservation & Recycling, 105, 1–12. | Phosphate Fertilizer Market Size & Share Report, 2040 | Research 3Spherical Insights | Gantner, O. Ressourcenstrategische Betrachtung der Kritikalität von Phosphor (Universität Augsburg, 2015).
phosphoric acid
As a naturally occurring element, rock phosphate is processed for the majority of its end uses through a traditional wet phosphoric acid plant, in order to extract the concentrate, P2O5 in the form of phosphoric acid. This phosphoric acid is then concentrated to various levels of P2O5 to develop various end use products.
supply
Approximately 85% of global rock phosphate supply is derived from North Africa, China, Russia and the Middle East. China being by far the largest manufacturer, but continuing to restrict any export of product in recent years as its reserves dwindle to below 34 years based on known reserves. While the USA has an estimated 50 years of supply remaining, it has declined from over 50 million tons per annum in the 1990’s to 20 million tons in 2023. This is in part due to the declining quality of rock phosphate suitable for the wet phosphoric acid processing technique. In complete contrast, Canada imports 99% of its phosphate needs, including $2 billion of phosphate fertilizer which is predominately from the USA.
| Country | Reserves (Mt) | Annual Production (Mt) 2024 | Years of Production Remaining |
|---|---|---|---|
| Morocco | 50,000 | 30 | 1,667 |
| China | 3,700 | 110 | 34 |
| Egypt | 2,800 | 5 | 560 |
| Tunisia | 2,500 | 3.3 | 758 |
| Russia | 2400 | 14 | 171 |
| Brazil | 1,600 | 5.3 | 302 |
| Jordan | 1,000 | 12 | 83 |
| United States | 1,000 | 20 | 50 |
| Saudi Arabia | 1,000 | 9.5 | 105 |
| Peru | 210 | 5 | 42 |
canadian outlook
Rising demand for phosphate fertilizers in Canada is expected to continue, driven by increasing food production needs, Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) battery growth and the rapidly growing demand for renewable diesel (RD) and Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) derived from canola oil predominately.
Five major announcements since 2021 for new processing capacity will add 6.7 million metric tonnes (MMT) of processing capacity by 2025 – representing a 60% increase. A substantial potion of this will be grown on the already 70% phosphorous deficient soils of the western prairies.
Canola Production Location & Canola Processing Facilities
lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries
In addition to the continued growth of the agriculture sector, Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) batteries will continue to drive demand for high-quality, purified phosphoric acid derived from rock phosphate. Due to its advantageous properties, such as lower cost, thermal stability, increased range and longer life span, the adoption of phosphate into energy storage system batteries and electric vehicles will continue to grow.
At the same time, onshoring of production in North America will be a key focus for the region, as heavy reliance on China has proven unsustainable. This strategic shift is evident in the substantial governmental support in the region to establish and grow domestic production capacity.
